Syrian rebels announced they have taken full control of Hama, the country’s second-largest city, after government forces withdrew, marking another setback for President Bashar al-Assad.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared “victory” in Hama and assured residents there would be “no retribution.”
Following the capture of Hama, rebel units quickly advanced toward Homs, a strategic city on the path to Damascus. Currently, the rebels are just a few kilometers away from Homs. If Homs falls, it will open the road to the Syrian capital and put Russian key military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim within striking distance.
In the past, Assad relied on Russia and Iran to crush his opponents. However, with both allies now preoccupied, it remains uncertain whether—or how—he can halt the offensive, which poses a threat to the survival of his government.
The Assad regime has faced severe economic constraints, resulting in significant reductions to the armed forces and militias. Chronic issues, such as low pay and inadequate training for non-elite units, have plagued the Syrian army for years, leaving it ill-prepared to repel the large-scale rebel advance.
The reduced size of the Syrian army has also affected its ability to cover flanks and counter breakthroughs effectively. This became evident during the initial breaches of the frontlines in Aleppo and southern Idlib, and even more so during the battles for Hama. Government reinforcements initially managed to push back militants and establish a defensive line north of Hama near the Christian town of Kumhana and a nearby strategic height that the rebels failed to take head-on. However, HTS brought in reinforcements from Idlib and Aleppo, circumventing these defenses with attacks from the northeast and northwest, ultimately breaking into the city and forcing the Syrian army to retreat.
The Syrian frontlines are now collapsing rapidly, with widespread reports of government troops fleeing the battlefield under pressure from rebel forces. The swift rebel advance underscores the weakened state of Assad’s military, which is struggling to contain the opposition offensive amid waning support from key allies and a declining military presence.
The fall of Hama represents a turning point in Syria’s ongoing civil war, bringing the conflict closer to the heart of Assad’s power and threatening his ability to maintain control over the nation. As the situation unfolds, the fate of key cities like Homs and Damascus hangs in the balance, along with the future stability of Russian military installations in Syria.