Russia shifts to ground-launched missiles in strikes on Ukraine

Key Points
  • Russia has shifted from bomber-launched cruise missiles to greater use of ground-launched Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles in strikes on Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian reporting says the change follows drone attacks that destroyed several Russian bombers, prompting Moscow to conserve its remaining fleet.

Russia has changed the way it carries out missile strikes on Ukraine, moving from heavy reliance on long-range bombers to increased use of ballistic and cruise missiles launched from ground-based systems.

Ukrainian sources say the change has become visible in recent attacks across front-line, central, and northern regions.

For much of the war, Moscow used its Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers to fire cruise missiles across Ukraine. Those aircraft allowed Russia to reach any region of the country. But after Ukrainian Security Service drone operations destroyed several bombers on their airfields, Russia has reduced the number of long-range aviation missions and begun conserving the remaining aircraft. Officials describe this approach as an effort to preserve the limited fleet and reduce exposure to further strikes.

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In place of strategic aviation, Russia is now relying more frequently on the Iskander missile system. Ukrainian reporting notes that both ballistic and cruise variants of the Iskander are now used to strike left-bank areas and several central regions. These missiles have shorter range and cannot reach western Ukraine, which limits how far Russia can strike without using bombers.

At the same time, Russia’s use of Kalibr cruise missiles, Kinzhal missiles, and Shahed drones has not changed. These systems continue to be employed against targets in any region Russia considers important, regardless of distance. Ukrainian officials say these weapons remain central to Russia’s long-range attacks and are used alongside the adjusted strike pattern involving Iskander systems.

The shift in tactics reflects the pressure on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. Ukrainian drone attacks on deep-rear airfields demonstrated that aircraft once believed secure could be reached and destroyed. That vulnerability has forced Russia to adjust flight operations, limit bomber exposure, and rely on weapons that can be launched from protected positions inside Russian-controlled territory.

As a result, the main threat from Russia’s bombers now concerns Ukraine’s western regions. Those areas remain within reach of long-range cruise missiles if Russia chooses to launch them, though such operations appear less frequent as Moscow works to preserve its remaining Tu-95MS and Tu-160 aircraft.

The overall pattern shows a clear shift in Russia’s strike doctrine. Instead of large-scale launches from strategic bombers, Russia is increasingly depending on ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles that do not put aircraft at risk. This change allows Moscow to continue deep attacks while reducing vulnerability to Ukrainian strikes on airbases.

Russia’s adjustment in missile tactics provides insight into the state of its long-range aviation and the pressure created by Ukrainian deep-strike capabilities. For U.S. defense analysts, these trends help shape assessments of Russia’s readiness, the survivability of its strategic platforms, and the evolving balance of strike capabilities in the region. The shift also influences planning for air and missile defense within NATO, as changes in Russia’s strike behavior affect the broader security environment in Eastern Europe.

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