China is expanding its nuclear arsenal at a faster pace than any other nuclear-armed state, according to a new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
The independent think tank warned that by the 2030s, China could reach nuclear parity with the United States, fundamentally altering global strategic stability.
SIPRI’s 2025 Yearbook states that China now possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads, an increase of 100 since 2024.
“By January 2025, China had completed or was close to completing around 350 new ICBM silos in three large desert fields in the north of the country and three mountainous areas in the east,” the report said.
The Chinese military is developing a broad mix of land-based missile systems to support this expansion. Approximately 300 silo launchers have been fielded for DF-31 and DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), while new brigades equipped with nuclear and conventional DF-26 missiles are being stood up.
Additional mobile ICBM brigades are also being created, reportedly consisting of between six and twelve launchers each.
Satellite imagery and open-source analysis conducted by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies indicates that a system of at least 120 missile silos is under development in Gansu Province, within the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Depending on China’s final force structure, it could match the number of ICBMs fielded by the U.S. or Russia by the end of the decade.
While the United States and Russia still maintain the largest nuclear stockpiles globally, SIPRI’s findings suggest a shift in the global balance. China’s growing arsenal may compel Washington to adapt its deterrence posture, which has traditionally been built around the ability to prevail in a single large-scale conflict at a time.
The report raises concerns that if the U.S. were to face overlapping or sequential major wars—such as conflicts with both Russia and China—its conventional forces could be overstretched. In such a scenario, the U.S. might be forced to rely more heavily on nuclear capabilities, SIPRI said.
Because the United States remains the primary security guarantor for Europe, these developments in Asia could also affect European defense policy. The mere possibility of war in the Indo-Pacific region is a European security issue.
At the same time, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and its military losses could delay its ability to pose a serious conventional threat to Europe. Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO would further reduce the risk of a major war on the continent.
Still, the broader trajectory is clear: the era of relative nuclear restraint that followed the Cold War is ending. China’s rapid military buildup, combined with stalled arms control efforts and rising geopolitical tension, points to a future shaped by renewed competition among major nuclear powers.