Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left the Kremlin increasingly beholden to China, entrenching economic, military, and technological dependencies that may reshape the strategic balance between the two powers.
As noted by recent trade data, Russia exported more than $250 billion worth of crude oil, refined petroleum, gas, coal, and gold in 2023, with the majority routed to China. Following Western sanctions and the collapse of ties with Europe and the U.S., Moscow is now focused on the Chinese and Indian markets, with China accounting for $129 billion of Russia’s export value.
The energy trade in particular has created an asymmetric dependence. With over half of Russian oil now destined for China, Beijing has emerged as a price-setter. Russian revenue has suffered under steep discounts imposed by Chinese buyers, weakening the Kremlin’s fiscal resilience.
In return, imports from China—worth more than $110 billion in 2023—have filled critical gaps in Russia’s domestic production, particularly in microelectronics, industrial machinery, and commercial goods. Moscow has lost access to Western technology and now relies heavily on Chinese components to maintain basic industrial functions.
This pattern extends to Russia’s military-industrial complex. Chinese-sourced parts are now embedded across nearly every modern Russian weapons platform. No new tank or missile system is produced without Chinese-made electronics. Over 80 percent of Russia’s tactical drones rely on Chinese hardware. Even Iranian-made Shahed drones, deployed in large numbers by Russian forces, contain key Chinese components. Rare earth materials essential to optics, radar, and guidance systems are also shipped from China.
Beijing, meanwhile, has expanded its own weapons production base and now outpaces Moscow in nearly every metric. China produces more fifth-generation fighters, fields tanks with active protection systems, and maintains a modern blue-water navy—including multiple aircraft carriers built without foreign assistance.
Technologically, Russia is falling behind. Western sanctions and internal corruption have slowed research and production in aerospace, cyber warfare, and advanced materials. China, capitalizing on the moment, has surged ahead in areas such as AI-enabled weapon systems, electromagnetic and laser technologies, and semiconductors. Chinese industry is now capable of producing lightweight and durable materials essential for advanced weapons platforms, areas where Russia remains constrained.
Strategically, Russia has hollowed out its defenses in Asia. To sustain operations in Ukraine, Moscow has transferred most modern air defense systems to the western theater and drawn down equipment stockpiles in the Far East. Dummy launchers now occupy sites once defended by S-400 batteries. Analysts have noted that long-range bombers, vulnerable to Ukrainian drone strikes, have been relocated to remote airfields.
The paradox is clear. Russia continues to warn of a NATO threat, yet it has ceded its eastern flank to dependence on a neighbor with superior industrial and military capacity. China, which maintains a more rapid defense production tempo, could feasibly sever Russia’s European heartland from its Asian territories. A few airborne operations targeting the Trans-Siberian Railway could isolate Moscow from its Far East holdings.
This vulnerability is not lost on the Kremlin. According to The New York Times, a clandestine unit within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has labeled China “the enemy.” Internal documents describe ongoing Chinese espionage against Russia, with intelligence officials warning of attempts to recruit Russian scientists, extract sensitive military data, and use academic institutions and Arctic ventures as cover for surveillance.
The FSB is reportedly concerned that China is monitoring Russian combat operations in Ukraine to glean data on Western weapon systems. Some within the agency believe Chinese scholars are preparing territorial claims on Russian land, while others warn of Beijing’s covert actions in the Russian Arctic.
What emerges is a portrait of a strained partnership. Outwardly cooperative, the Sino-Russian relationship is underpinned by Beijing’s growing leverage and Moscow’s strategic exhaustion. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pursuit of military glory in Ukraine has left his country economically constrained, technologically overmatched, and exposed on its eastern flank.
Even Russian influencers are aware of this issue, warning about the negative impact of the ongoing war against the backdrop of China’s growing ambitions.
At this point, what stands between China and a potential incursion into resource-rich regions of eastern Russia is not Russian deterrence, but the political calculus of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Moscow is no longer a peer in this relationship. It is a client state with dwindling options.