Ukraine’s air defense forces are facing mounting challenges as Russia modifies its ballistic missiles to evade Western-made Patriot systems, a senior Ukrainian Air Force official said on Sunday.
Yurii Ihnat, chief of communications for Ukraine’s Air Force Command, confirmed during a national television broadcast that intercepting Russian ballistic missiles has become more difficult. The change, he explained, is due to new flight patterns and more complex attack approaches designed to exploit gaps in Ukraine’s air defense coverage.
“Of course, it has become more difficult to work against missiles that fly on a quasi-ballistic trajectory, meaning they make oscillations on approach,” Ihnat said. “This complicates the work of Patriot, because the system operates in automatic mode when intercepting ballistic missiles. It becomes harder to calculate the point where the interceptor missile will collide with or detonate near the enemy missile.”
According to Ihnat, Russia’s missiles are not only maneuvering during their terminal phase but are also being launched from multiple directions, forcing Ukraine to spread its air defense assets thinner.
“If the ballistic missile can approach from different directions, detection by a single system is not possible,” he added. “It is necessary to have several systems, several radars, which can detect targets and cover the city from different directions.”
The comments follow a report by Financial Times earlier this week, which cited Western intelligence assessments indicating that Russia has modified its Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile system and its Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile.
According to the report, the upgraded missiles now follow standard ballistic trajectories before sharply altering their course, diving steeply, or performing sudden maneuvers. These adjustments are designed to “confuse and bypass” Patriot interceptors, which rely on precise trajectory calculations to destroy incoming threats.
The adaptations appear to be having a measurable impact. Financial Times reported that Ukraine’s interception rate against Russian ballistic missiles improved over the summer, reaching 37% in August. However, that figure dropped sharply to just 6% in September, despite a decline in the number of missile launches.
The steep fall in interception success underscores the evolving nature of Russia’s missile campaign and the challenges Ukraine faces in defending its cities and infrastructure. Patriot systems — supplied by the United States and its allies — remain among the most advanced air defense platforms in Ukraine’s arsenal, capable of engaging aircraft, cruise missiles, and certain types of ballistic missiles. But their effectiveness depends heavily on early detection and accurate trajectory prediction, both of which are complicated by the new quasi-ballistic flight paths.