Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, American defense companies have faced a crisis in the global arms market.
The U.S. withdrawal of military aid to Ukraine, trade conflicts with allies, and threats of sanctions against countries opting for non-American weapons have severely undermined trust in the U.S. as a reliable partner. As a result, the stock prices of major American defense corporations have begun to decline, while competitors in Europe and Asia are rapidly increasing their exports.
One of Trump’s most controversial decisions was the complete suspension of military aid to Ukraine. The U.S. not only froze new supplies but also blocked the mechanism for financing Ukraine’s purchase of American weapons through European funds. This inflicted billions of dollars in losses on U.S. defense corporations that produced missiles, artillery, drones, and air defense systems for the Ukrainian army.
This policy has eroded trust in the U.S. as a weapons supplier. Eastern European countries, which previously considered American weapons as the backbone of their defense, are now forced to seek alternatives. Poland, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic states have increased their purchases of European weapons, particularly from Germany’s Rheinmetall and France’s KDNS.
Trump has continued his policy of economic pressure on allies, threatening sanctions against countries that buy European or Asian weapons instead of American ones. This has provoked a strong reaction in both the EU and Asia. For example, South Korea, once a major buyer of American aviation and air defense systems, is now actively developing its own defense industry. Its FA-50 fighter jets and K2 Black Panther tanks have already replaced American equipment in several countries.
Europe has also accelerated the transition to independent defense production. France and Germany have launched the joint European FCAS fighter jet program, designed to compete with the F-35. Meanwhile, Spain and Italy are expanding their production of warships and armored vehicles for European armed forces. Additionally, European nations are increasingly favoring Israel’s PULS MLRS over the HIMARS system, further reflecting declining trust in American defense products.
A major new challenge for the U.S. is Turkey, which is gradually displacing American weapons from key markets. Ankara is actively promoting its own developments, such as Bayraktar combat drones, ATAK attack helicopters, armored vehicles, and rocket artillery systems. Turkish weapons have already replaced American counterparts in contracts for Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia, and even the United Kingdom.
Following Trump’s decision to cut military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv has reoriented towards purchasing Turkish equipment. Ukraine actively uses Bayraktar TB2 drones and the latest Akıncı UAVs and is also considering cooperation in armored vehicle production. The UK has signed a contract for the supply of Turkish UAVs, marking another blow to American defense exports.
Trump’s questioning of NATO’s security guarantees is driving European allies toward strengthening their defense capabilities independently. In response to White House statements about a potential reduction of U.S. military presence in Europe, France and Germany have begun forming a joint European defense alliance, which involves rearmament without U.S. participation. This means that the American defense industry is gradually losing its largest international contracts.
Meanwhile, Japan, Australia, and South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region are increasingly collaborating on defense matters. Instead of purchasing American aircraft and missiles, they are expanding their cooperation in domestic military production.
Trump’s recent statements about the possible U.S. occupation of Greenland have caused serious concern in Denmark, which is now questioning the feasibility of its F-35 procurement contract. The Danish government is considering suspending or reviewing the deal due to concerns about American policy in the region.
Adding to this issue for Lockheed Martin is Elon Musk’s recent criticism of the F-35, where he claimed that the jet is outdated and non-competitive in modern combat scenarios. The negative publicity surrounding the F-35 could significantly impact future contracts, as countries like Germany and Spain are already exploring alternatives.
Against the backdrop of political instability in the U.S. and Trump’s policy shifts, China, South Korea, and Turkey are rapidly expanding their arms exports. Beijing dominates the arms market in Latin America and Africa, offering cheaper alternatives to American systems. South Korea, which once relied heavily on American arms imports, has now become an independent supplier of tanks, artillery, and fighter jets.
With sanctions and political isolation limiting U.S. arms exports, more countries are seeking alternatives. However, an unexpected future market could be Russia, which—if U.S. sanctions are lifted—may become a major buyer of American weapons. Donald Trump recently stated that he is considering the normalization of relations with Moscow, which could open the door for U.S. military exports to Russia. While such a scenario seems unlikely in the current geopolitical climate, it underscores the extent to which the U.S. has lost traditional markets and is now forced to look for new buyers—even among former adversaries.
The global arms market situation highlights that the U.S. is losing its strategic position, while new players are taking its place. Trump’s policies toward allies, sanctions, and trade wars are pushing partners to seek alternatives to American weaponry. If the U.S. government does not stabilize its defense policy, the risk of losing key markets will become irreversible.
