A new academic study has revealed a sharp contrast in how Americans and South Koreans perceive the likelihood of U.S. military support if war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula.
According to the results, published by Naver, South Koreans appear far more confident than Americans that the United States would intervene militarily in the event of a North Korean invasion.
The survey, conducted in February 2025, polled 552 Americans and 1,000 South Koreans. It found that 24.3% of American respondents believed the U.S. would “do nothing” in response to a North Korean attack—nearly one in four. Only 37% said they expected the U.S. to send troops. In contrast, just 7.1% of South Koreans predicted no American response, while 41.3% anticipated U.S. troop deployments and 62.9% expected at least weapons or intelligence support.
Timothy Rich, a political science professor at Western Kentucky University and a longtime observer of Korean affairs, said the results highlight a “concerning misalignment” between public perceptions in the two countries.
“Americans were more than three times as likely as South Koreans to believe the U.S. would take no military action,” Rich noted. He attributed the South Korean optimism to the longstanding presence of U.S. troops stationed in the country, which may create an expectation of automatic support.
Rich warned that this gap in expectations could pose problems if a conflict were to occur.
“Koreans may be unprepared to accept a U.S. response that falls short of their assumptions,” he said. “The perception of insufficient aid could fuel political tension, especially if casualties mount quickly.”
The findings also come amid growing speculation that President Donald Trump may push for increased burden-sharing from allies, including South Korea. During his previous administration, Trump repeatedly called for Seoul to pay more for the cost of hosting U.S. troops.
While both American and South Korean respondents acknowledged the seriousness of a potential war, Rich emphasized that South Koreans’ near certainty about U.S. involvement should be tempered by a more realistic assessment of American public opinion.
The survey data arrives at a time of renewed strategic uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific region, where North Korea’s continued weapons testing and regional instability have kept tensions high.