Amid heightened tensions in Eastern Europe and the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus on September 12 launched their strategic exercise Zapad-2025.
The drills, billed as a test of the Union State’s ability to “repel possible aggression,” are taking place across training grounds in both countries and extending into the Baltic and Barents Seas.
According to Belarusian officials, the first stage of the exercise is focused on command and control, with units practicing responses to simulated attacks against the Union State. The training involves improving staff coordination, managing formations under combat conditions, and testing interoperability in countering potential threats.
Belarusian and Russian defense ministries said Zapad-2025 is a “planned exercise,” preceded by months of preparatory maneuvers. However, the timing has raised concern among NATO members bordering Belarus.
Poland moved to fully close its border with Belarus on the evening of September 11, citing the exercise as the reason, even before Russian drones crashed on its territory earlier in the week. Latvia’s parliament voted to seal its borders with both Russia and Belarus for the duration of the drills, and Lithuania imposed partial restrictions on its airspace.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected suggestions that the drills represent a threat to NATO, telling reporters Thursday that Zapad-2025 is “not aimed against anyone.” But Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of “critical days” for his country, arguing that Poland is now closer to “open conflict” than at any time since World War II.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced similar concerns. “The meaning of such actions by Russia is definitely not defensive and is directed precisely against not only Ukraine,” he said in Kyiv.
Zapad exercises are traditionally staged every four years, but this iteration is the first since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The 2021 version involved some 200,000 troops, but Belarusian officials say Zapad-2025 will be far smaller. Minsk initially announced 13,000 troops would participate, later halving that figure.
Military analysts say the scale may be limited by Russia’s ongoing war effort, with hundreds of thousands of its forces tied down on the Ukrainian front. Nonetheless, the drills include sensitive elements. Belarus has confirmed they will feature Russia’s new experimental nuclear-capable missile, codenamed Oreshnik, as well as training for nuclear strike scenarios.
Poland and its allies see the exercise as potentially simulating an assault on the Suwalki Corridor, a 60-mile stretch of land between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. NATO planners have long warned the corridor represents a strategic vulnerability that could cut off the Baltic states in a conflict.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko dismissed those concerns as “utter nonsense,” while his defense ministry insisted the drills had been moved away from Poland’s borders to reduce tensions.