While Western nations continue to debate Ukraine’s right to deploy short-range ballistic and cruise missiles for self-defense, authoritarian regimes are expanding their arsenals, arming themselves with advanced long-range missiles and even tactical nuclear weapons.
This stark contrast has become a pressing issue for Ukraine, which remains under daily attack from Russian-launched missiles and airstrikes originating from bases near the border.
For months, Ukraine has sought Western approval to use advanced short-range ballistic and cruise missiles to target Russian border bases. These sites are critical hubs for launching air raids and ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Despite the persistent threat, discussions in the West have been slow, often constrained by political and logistical concerns.
“Weak democracies spend years debating whether to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS and Taurus. Meanwhile, autocracies effortlessly turn Belarus into a nuclear proxy and prepare to strike Ukraine with North Korean medium-range ballistic missiles,” wrote Oleksandr Arhat, co-founder of Militarnyi, on social media platform X.
Weak democracies spend years debating whether to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS and Taurus. Meanwhile, autocracies effortlessly turn Belarus into a nuclear proxy and prepare to strike Ukraine with North Korean medium-range ballistic missiles.https://t.co/m1UCNywUeW
— Oleksandr Arhat (@olarhat) December 22, 2024
Russia has increasingly relied on partnerships with allied regimes to bolster its arsenal. One notable example is Belarus, where tactical nuclear weapons designed for use with Iskander missile systems have already been deployed. Moscow has also announced plans to supply Belarus with RS-26 Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missiles in 2025, a development that could threaten any European country.
Concurrently, Russia has received tactical missile systems from North Korea, including the KN-23—also known as Hwasong-11—which have been used extensively against Ukrainian targets. Andrii Cherniak, a representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, reported that Russia has launched approximately 60 North Korean missiles during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Recent reports from Militarnyi indicate that Russia may now have acquired North Korea’s KN-15 Pukguksong-2 medium-range ballistic missiles. These nuclear-capable systems, spotted in Tyumen Oblast, Russia, have an estimated range of 2,000 kilometers, posing a potential threat far beyond Ukraine’s borders.
The disparity in missile capabilities highlights a growing imbalance. While Ukraine’s requests for advanced Western systems like Tomahawk and Taurus missiles remain under consideration, autocratic regimes are rapidly escalating their offensive capabilities. This dynamic risks not only undermining Ukraine’s defensive efforts but also destabilizing the broader European security landscape.
As the situation evolves, Western democracies must grapple with the consequences of delayed decisions while authoritarian states continue to act with relative impunity.