Taiwan upgrades its infantry anti-armor weapon to counter Chinese tanks

Taiwan’s state defense research institute publicly unveiled its next-generation anti-armor rocket, showing off a weapon significantly more capable than what Taiwanese infantry currently carry and explicitly designed to counter the armored vehicles a Chinese amphibious invasion force would land on Taiwan’s beaches.

The National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, known as NCSIST and the primary engine of Taiwan’s indigenous defense development, demonstrated the Kestrel II for the first time, revealing a shoulder-fired rocket that achieved 67 centimeters of armor penetration in testing and can engage targets at 500 meters, a meaningful improvement over the original Kestrel on both counts.

The People’s Liberation Army’s primary heavy armor, the ZTZ-99A main battle tank developed by China’s state defense manufacturer Norinco, is assessed to carry frontal protection equivalent to roughly 700 to 1,000 millimeters of rolled homogeneous armor, according to analysis by Vermilion China drawing on a study by Taiwan Army Major Li Zhengyun. The Kestrel II’s best test result of 670 millimeters of penetration, while impressive for a disposable shoulder-fired rocket, is not sufficient to punch through a Type 99A’s frontal armor from the front. But that framing misses how Taiwan’s military actually intends to use the weapon.

Shoulder-fired anti-armor rockets are not designed to duel tanks head-on at maximum range. They are infantry weapons used in ambush, from the flanks and rear, targeting the thinner armor that protects a tank’s sides, engine compartment, and running gear. Against the amphibious landing vehicles, light armored carriers, and logistics vehicles that would form the bulk of any Chinese beach assault, a rocket capable of defeating 670 millimeters of armor at 500 meters is more than sufficient.

NCSIST engineer Huang Chih-ching, speaking at the unveiling, explained the targeting philosophy directly, according to the source article: while the system’s effective range reaches 500 meters, the practical advice to shooters is to engage closer rather than farther, because proximity improves hit probability and reduces the shooter’s exposure time after firing. The guidance reflects a doctrinal reality that any infantryman who has trained with shoulder-fired rockets understands intuitively.

The Kestrel II represents a substantial performance leap over the original Kestrel, which entered service with Taiwan’s Army, Marine Corps, and Military Police Command in 2015 after NCSIST began development in 2008. The original system had an effective range of 400 meters and could penetrate 300 millimeters of rolled homogeneous armor, per NCSIST’s own documentation. Over nearly a decade in service, more than 1,000 rounds were fired with a reported hit accuracy rate of 99.8 percent, according to Taiwan News reporting from May 2025. The Kestrel II extends range by 100 meters and more than doubles the penetration figure, while the warhead maintained a weight of 3.5 kilograms through the use of aluminum alloy combined with composite materials, per the original Chinese-language source report. In testing, the rocket consistently achieved 620 millimeters of penetration, with the best single shot reaching 670 millimeters under maximum kinetic energy conditions.

The Kestrel II’s caliber grew from 66 millimeters in the original to 96 millimeters in the new version, requiring a larger launcher tube. Focus Taiwan’s reporting from the May 19 unveiling confirmed the tube is now 116 centimeters long, six centimeters longer than the first-generation launcher, and the complete unit weighs 7.4 kilograms, which is 2.3 kilograms heavier than its predecessor. The increase in weight is a tradeoff NCSIST accepted in exchange for the penetration improvement, though both versions remain shoulder-carried with a strap and both are designed as disposable, single-use systems discarded after firing. NCSIST engineer Huang noted that spent launchers can be returned to the factory for refurbishment and reloading, which reduces long-term per-shot costs despite the nominally disposable design.

Two major capability additions distinguish the Kestrel II from its predecessor beyond raw penetration. The first is a predicted line-of-sight targeting system, designated PLOS, that allows the sight to automatically calculate lead distance based on a moving target’s speed, placing the aiming reticle ahead of where the target currently sits rather than where it appears at the moment of firing. Hitting a moving tank with an unguided rocket requires accounting for the time the rocket takes to reach the target, and without PLOS that calculation falls entirely to the shooter’s training and judgment. The system also accepts a thermal imaging sight mounted on a tactical rail, giving soldiers the ability to engage at night or in bad weather at the same 500-meter range the system achieves in daylight, with five-power optical zoom and an eight-hour standby battery that can be recharged using a portable power bank. After firing, the thermal sight can be removed from the Kestrel launcher and mounted on any other Taiwan military equipment using the same tactical rail standard, functioning as a standalone observation device.

The development timeline places the Kestrel II in developmental testing now, with NCSIST confirming the outdoor launcher variant should complete development testing by the end of June 2026, followed by initial operational testing and evaluation with the Army. The indoor-capable variant, designed with reduced backblast for use in buildings and enclosed spaces, is expected to enter developmental testing by the end of 2026. NCSIST has already demonstrated both variants to Taiwan’s Army, Marine Corps, and Military Police, indicating the service branches are actively involved in shaping the evaluation requirements. Per the source article, estimated per-unit costs for live rounds run between roughly $3,000 and $6,000 at current development-stage pricing, with NCSIST noting that global propellant and raw material costs remain volatile and that final production pricing will be lower.

Taiwan’s Army had already ordered 5,962 additional Kestrel systems in late 2024, bringing the total procurement to 10,962 units at approximately $3,000 per unit, with deliveries scheduled through November 2025, according to Janes, establishing an industrial baseline for the program that the Kestrel II would eventually slot into as production matures. The Kestrel II’s development tracks directly with Taiwan’s broader shift toward asymmetric defense, a strategy that prioritizes distributing large numbers of inexpensive but effective weapons to infantry units capable of contesting an amphibious landing at the beach rather than relying on a smaller number of expensive heavy platforms. Taiwan News previously reported that NCSIST explicitly framed the cost advantage in asymmetric terms, noting that a Kestrel round at roughly NT$100,000 compares favorably to a TOW 2B missile at NT$6.2 million, making mass distribution practical in ways that precision guided anti-tank missiles simply are not.