A hotline established between Japan and China to prevent accidental clashes at sea and in the air has failed to function since its creation in March 2023.
The direct communication line, set up between the two defense ministries, was meant to serve as a pillar of the maritime and aerial communication mechanism designed to avoid miscalculation. According to multiple Japanese government officials, the line has only been used once—for a courtesy call lasting about 20 minutes between the two defense ministers shortly after it was launched.
Since then, it has not been activated, even during incidents that Japanese officials viewed as high-risk. In July 2024, the Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer Suzutsuki accidentally entered Chinese territorial waters, and a month later, a Chinese military aircraft for the first time violated Japanese airspace. Neither episode prompted hotline communication. The system also went unused when Chinese fighters conducted unusually close maneuvers near Japanese patrol and intelligence aircraft over the Pacific in June and the East China Sea in July.
Japanese officials said their side sought to initiate senior-level talks through the hotline in these cases, but Beijing did not respond. One Ministry of Defense official explained, “The Japanese side tried to promptly prepare a meeting through the hotline, but the Chinese side did not agree.”
Analysts point to a difference in how both sides view the hotline. Tokyo wants it to provide immediate contact during emergencies, while Beijing appears to require prior arrangements through diplomatic channels before defense officials can engage.
A former Cabinet official involved in the hotline’s creation admitted that “there was a difference in purpose and urgency from the beginning.”
The agreement establishing the hotline reportedly included a clause allowing up to 48 hours before dialogue begins, a condition pushed by Beijing. Japanese officials argue that such delays defeat the purpose of an emergency communication channel, since most incidents end within minutes.
A Ministry of Defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “With the Chinese method, swift communication is unrealistic.” Another official suggested that Chinese officers at the working level lack the authority to answer hotline calls without higher-level approval.
The failure of the hotline comes as Chinese military activity has become more frequent and assertive near Japan. Defense Ministry sources said that in one case, a Chinese fighter closed to within roughly 45 meters of a Japanese P-3C patrol plane. In another, a Chinese jet approached an Air Self-Defense Force YS-11EB electronic intelligence aircraft at dangerously close range.
“Both Japan and China need to recognize that the hotline is an extremely important tool for crisis management,” said Tetsuo Kotani, a professor at Meikai University. He urged the two governments to resume suspended annual meetings and expert-level discussions under the maritime and aerial communication mechanism, last held in 2021.
Within Japan, pessimism is growing about whether the hotline can be made effective. Government officials fear that in the event of an incident, the lack of timely communication will leave commanders guessing about the other side’s intentions. One senior official noted, “The Japanese side wants a channel for urgent discussions in a crisis, but without mutual trust at the working level, it will not function.”
As tensions continue to rise around disputed air and sea corridors, the absence of a reliable communication channel between Asia’s two largest militaries adds to the risk of unintended escalation.