Analysis: Russia and Ukraine intensify deep-strike drone war

Russia and Ukraine sharply increased long-range strike operations in March, with both sides expanding drone and missile attacks deep beyond the front lines, according to a new assessment provided by ACLED senior analyst Witold Stupnicki.

The data points to a sustained rise in strike intensity, highlighted by what ACLED described as a record 948-drone Russian attack carried out over March 23–24 and a parallel increase in Ukrainian strikes targeting critical infrastructure inside Russia.

The latest figures suggest that the war’s long-range strike campaign is entering a new phase, with operational pressure no longer confined to frontline positions. ACLED said Russia recorded more than 3,000 strikes in March, up from 2,712 in February, while Ukrainian strikes across Russian territory exceeded 1,400 during the same month, spanning 27 regions. That upward trend, according to the assessment, reflects a deliberate escalation rather than an isolated spike in activity.

“Russia’s air strategy has multiple layers – the record 948-drone attack on March 23-24, combined with overnight barrages to exhaust air defenses with an unprecedented daytime wave to exploit gaps, while specific missiles targeted energy infrastructure,” Stupnicki said in written comments provided through ACLED. “ACLED records more than 3000 Russian strikes in March, up from 2,712 in February – it is a sustained escalation, and not a one-off.”

The figures indicate that Russia’s immediate objective remains the degradation of Ukraine’s air defense network while also placing renewed pressure on energy and logistics infrastructure. ACLED’s analysis said the structure of the mass drone raids appears designed to force Ukrainian defenders to expend interceptors during overnight attacks before follow-on daytime waves exploit weakened coverage. The strikes also appear linked to preparations for broader ground operations, including pressure around the Donetsk defensive belt and transport corridors supporting Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has expanded the scale and geographic reach of its own strike campaign inside Russia. ACLED said Kyiv’s forces increasingly shifted from attacks on border-region military targets and oil refineries toward strikes aimed directly at Russia’s export revenue streams. In the final week of March, Ukrainian strikes reportedly hit oil infrastructure in the Leningrad region, including the major crude terminals at Primorsk and Ust-Luga as well as the Kinef refinery in Kirishi.

According to ACLED, those attacks temporarily disrupted an estimated 40% of Russia’s crude export capacity. The assessment links the strikes to a broader Ukrainian strategy aimed at reducing Russia’s war-funding revenues, particularly as global energy market disruptions and temporary U.S. waivers on Russian oil exports boosted Moscow’s income. Russian authorities later announced a four-month ban on gasoline exports beginning April 1, citing reduced refinery output levels.

Stupnicki said the operational pattern also reflects a shift in Ukraine’s strike capability. “Ukraine’s strikes inside Russia have grown steadily, from 984 in January to 1,400 across 27 regions in March, and the nature of the targets tells a story,” he said. “The campaign to systematically destroy Russian air defense systems appears to be what’s making all this possible, creating gaps that allow increasingly large drone swarms to reach targets over 1,000 km away.”

The technical trend behind both campaigns points to increasing reliance on large drone swarms and layered strike packages. On the Russian side, ACLED said production capacity for Shahed-type drones continues to expand and that newer, faster variants are entering service. On the Ukrainian side, domestic drone manufacturing is also scaling rapidly, enabling larger strike packages and deeper penetration missions.

ACLED said the trajectory remains upward for now, though several outside factors could influence whether the tempo rises further in the coming months. Among them are broader regional conflicts affecting oil markets, Western air defense stockpiles, and new defense partnerships that could strengthen Ukraine’s access to technology and industrial support.

The latest data reinforces a central lesson of the war: long-range strike warfare is becoming a decisive operational layer in its own right. The sustained increase in drone and missile activity on both sides suggests that infrastructure, energy nodes, and rear-area logistics will remain central targets as each side seeks to shape the battlefield well beyond the front line.