- Analysts using satellite imagery identified the former Krichev-6 aerodrome near the Belarus–Russia border as a likely site for Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile deployment.
- The potential deployment in Belarus, confirmed by Belarusian officials, could challenge existing arms control frameworks and increase nuclear-related security concerns for Europe and the United States.
Russia appears to be moving closer to deploying its nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system, also known as RS-26, on the territory of Belarus.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week that, “The relocation of the Oreshnik system to the territory of Belarus is nearing completion. We understand where it will be deployed.” Zelenskyy did not publicly name the location.
Following that statement, analysts affiliated with Middlebury College examined satellite imagery to identify where the system may be headed. According to their findings, the likely deployment site is the former Krichev-6 aerodrome in eastern Belarus, roughly five kilometers from the Russian border.
The research team included Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, Michael Duitsman, and Decker Eveleth, an alumnus now working at the CNA Corporation. The group relied primarily on commercial satellite imagery provided by Planet Labs.
The analysts assessed multiple potential locations based on public statements by Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko, who said around thirty sites were reviewed before a final decision was made. Lukashenko also stated that the missiles were not deployed near Slutsk, despite earlier reporting focusing on construction activity in that area.
“We never stationed Oreshnik in or around Slutsk,” Lukashenko said. “We deployed it where it is more advantageous, but I will not speak about that.”
Lukashenko added on December 17 that, “The first positions have been prepared for the Oreshnik missile system. We have had it since yesterday, and it is going on combat duty before the end of the year.” Belarus’s defense minister later confirmed “the deployment of the Oreshnik system on Belarusian land.”
The Oreshnik is believed to be a two-stage intermediate-range ballistic missile derived from the first two stages of a Yars-type intercontinental ballistic missile, paired with a specialized combat payload. According to U.S. government statements cited by the researchers, the system was developed on the basis of the RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile.
In its multi-warhead configuration, the Oreshnik is assessed to have a range of around 3,500 kilometers and may carry up to six nuclear warheads or alternative payloads. Russia previously launched an Oreshnik missile in November 2024 against the Pivdenmash industrial facility in Dnipro, Ukraine, using inert flechettes.
Satellite imagery reviewed by the team shows rapid construction activity at the former Krichev-6 airfield beginning in early August 2025. Analysts noted the removal of existing civilian structures, the rebuilding of a dedicated railhead, and the construction of secure facilities across the disused runway.
The rebuilt rail infrastructure is viewed as a key indicator. Strategic Rocket Forces units typically rely on railheads for transporting missiles and associated equipment, unlike shorter-range systems such as Iskander, whose nuclear warheads are stored separately.
The researchers assessed that the size of the secured technical area suggests the site may host a battalion-sized element of two to three launchers, rather than a full regiment. They also noted evidence that additional deployment locations in Belarus, or a permanent base in Russia’s Smolensk region, may still be planned.
Cloud cover has limited access to recent high-resolution imagery, but moderate-resolution images from late December indicate that construction activity continues. Analysts also observed a large concrete pad poured near the end of the runway, later covered with soil, possibly intended as a launch point or vehicle hardstand.
According to the assessment, placing the Oreshnik near the Russian border does not expand the missile’s reach into Western Europe. Instead, the analysts concluded that the deployment appears driven largely by political considerations.
The State Secretary of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, Dmitry Mezentsev, described the deployment as “a guarantee of the Union State’s security. Today, Russia and Belarus are forced to respond to unprecedented foreign pressure.”
The analysts warned that deploying a nuclear-capable intermediate-range system in Belarus represents a departure from previous Russian practice and may violate the New START treaty, which restricts the basing of strategic offensive arms outside national territory.