A newly released U.S. State Department report highlights mounting concerns over Russia’s failure to comply with key verification provisions of the New START Treaty.
The violations, which include refusal to facilitate inspection activities and failure to provide regular data updates, undermine the United States’ ability to verify Russia’s adherence to the treaty’s deployed warhead limits.
The New START Treaty, a cornerstone of arms control between the two nuclear superpowers, imposes a cap of 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers. Despite Russia’s suspension of the treaty in February 2023, Moscow has claimed it continues to abide by the central limits on strategic offensive arms. However, U.S. officials are skeptical.
“Russia’s noncompliance with the treaty’s verification provisions is depriving the United States of critical tools needed to assess whether it is adhering to the limits,” the report states. These measures include biannual declarations of deployed warheads, notifications of changes in deployment status, and on-site inspections, which are integral to maintaining transparency and trust between the two nations.
The United States assesses that while Russia likely did not engage in large-scale activities exceeding treaty limits in 2024, its proximity to the cap raises concerns. The report suggests that Russia may have exceeded the 1,550 warhead limit during parts of the year, although the lack of inspections makes definitive conclusions impossible.
Verification measures, such as Type One inspections, enable U.S. officials to visually confirm the number of reentry vehicles on deployed missiles at Russian bases. These inspections also deter false declarations, ensuring greater compliance. Since inspections were suspended, the U.S. has lost access to essential data, creating uncertainty over Russia’s strategic capabilities.
“This lack of transparency leaves significant gaps in our ability to monitor Russia’s actions,” the report warns, emphasizing the risks posed by an unverified nuclear arsenal in an increasingly strained geopolitical environment.
The absence of verification mechanisms exacerbates mistrust between the two countries, particularly as tensions over Ukraine and other security issues continue to escalate. The lack of biannual data updates further compounds the issue, depriving U.S. analysts of baseline information essential for assessing compliance.
The latest findings come as arms control agreements face increasing pressure worldwide. With New START set to expire in 2026, both the United States and Russia face critical decisions about whether to negotiate a successor treaty or risk a further erosion of the global arms control framework.
For now, the United States is urging Russia to return to compliance and reinstate the treaty’s verification regime. Failure to do so, experts warn, could lead to an arms race at a time of heightened international instability.