U.S. Navy pays $100M for missiles that simulate China and Russia’s threat

Every warship in the U.S. Navy practices shooting down the kind of supersonic cruise missiles that China and Russia have spent decades perfecting, and the Navy paid nearly $100 million to keep that practice running for another five years with the only American target missile that can actually replicate what those weapons do.

The Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division at Point Mugu, California awarded Northrop Grumman Systems a $100 million contract for the GQM-163A Coyote supersonic sea-skimming target missile program, covering flight trajectory planning, technical data packages, and operational support services through May 2031. The Coyote is not a weapon; it is the stand-in for one, built to fly exactly like the anti-ship cruise missiles that China and Russia have deployed against American surface ships, giving Navy crews and the missile defense systems aboard their warships a realistic target to train and test against under live-fire conditions.

China’s YJ-12 anti-ship missile travels at over Mach 2 in a sea-skimming profile, flying just meters above the ocean surface to avoid radar detection until it is within seconds of impact. Russia’s P-800 Oniks, which Moscow has exported to India, Vietnam, and other navies, follows the same general attack geometry. Iran operates Russian-supplied anti-ship missiles capable of similar profiles. The Coyote matches that threat directly: it can cruise at over Mach 2.5 at low altitude in sea-skimming mode, flying as low as 4 meters (13 feet) above the ocean surface, or ascend to high altitude and dive at Mach 3.5 or more from approximately 15,850 meters (52,000 feet). Those two attack profiles, sea-skimming and high-altitude dive, represent the two primary geometries that modern anti-ship cruise missiles use, and a ship’s defense system has to defeat both to survive.

The Coyote is the only supersonic sea-skimming target produced in the United States and the Navy’s program of record for high-speed threat simulation, a distinction that matters practically because there is no substitute available if the program were to lapse. When an Aegis destroyer fires a Standard Missile-6 against an incoming threat at RIMPAC, or when Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force validates its ship defense systems against a simulated Chinese missile attack, the target they are shooting at is the GQM-163A. The $100 million contract keeps that capability available through 2031.

The program began in 2000 when Orbital Sciences, later acquired by Northrop Grumman, won the initial Navy development contract. The first launch took place in 2003 and developmental flight testing was completed in 2005, with the Coyote entering operational service that same year. Northrop delivered its 200th Coyote to the Navy in June 2025, a cumulative total that reflects two decades of continuous production demand from a customer base that includes not only the U.S. Navy but also Japan, Israel, France, and other allied navies facing the same threat environment.

The contract’s work location breakdown across seven American sites, one in Scotland, and one undisclosed location in Israel confirms the program’s multinational reach. Point Mugu handles 27 percent of the work as the primary Pacific test range. The Hebrides range in Scotland handles 6 percent, supporting NATO allied live-fire exercises over the Atlantic. The Israeli site handles 3 percent, consistent with Israel’s longstanding GQM-163A purchases for testing its own naval defense systems.

The contract covers more than building the missiles themselves. It includes flight trajectory planning, which determines the specific attack profiles used in each test, and the physical loading of Coyote targets onto their ground launchers before each live fire. Those operational services reflect how the program actually functions: every test requires not only a missile but a pre-calculated attack run designed to stress the specific system being evaluated, whether that is an Aegis radar trying to detect a sea-skimmer at maximum range or a point defense gun trying to engage a diving target in its final seconds of flight.

The urgency behind the program has grown as China’s and Russia’s anti-ship missile inventories have expanded. The South China Sea, where American carrier strike groups operate regularly, is now covered by Chinese land-based anti-ship missile batteries, submarine-launched weapons, and surface ship salvos that would simultaneously launch dozens of supersonic and subsonic missiles in coordinated attacks designed to overwhelm any single ship’s defenses. The Navy’s response to that threat depends on Aegis systems, Standard Missiles, and close-in weapons that have been tested and refined against the Coyote over two decades of live-fire exercises. Stopping that testing, or degrading the realism of the target, would degrade the readiness of every ship in the fleet against the threats that American naval planners consider most dangerous.