Germany’s intelligence and military leadership have raised fresh concerns about the possibility of a future Russian military operation against NATO allies, citing a classified analysis based on new assessments by the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Bundeswehr.
According to reporting from Süddeutsche Zeitung and broadcasters WDR and NDR, the analysis suggests Russia could launch a conventional attack on a NATO member state—potentially in the Baltics—before the end of this decade. The warning reflects a growing belief in Berlin that Moscow’s long-term strategic ambitions extend well beyond Ukraine.
In November, BND chief Bruno Kahl said Russia may test NATO’s collective defense clause—Article 5—by initiating a conflict in the Baltic region. While three-quarters of Russia’s ground forces are currently engaged in Ukraine, its air and naval forces in the Baltic Sea remain operational and capable, the report said.
“The likelihood of a direct attack on a NATO state is currently assessed as low,” the analysis notes. However, German intelligence warns that after the war in Ukraine concludes, Russian forces could rapidly reposition near NATO’s eastern flank. The report states that Russia is preparing the conditions to wage a “full-scale conventional war” within the coming years.
The intelligence assessment also challenges the notion that the war in Ukraine has severely weakened Moscow. On the contrary, it states that the Russian military has proven resilient, managing to sustain operations despite Western sanctions and high battlefield losses. The Kremlin has shifted its economy toward wartime production, now manufacturing weapons beyond the needs of the conflict in Ukraine, and plans to expand the military to 1.5 million personnel by 2026.
General Carsten Breuer, Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, reinforced this view during a recent interview with ARD, stating, “Russia is building military infrastructure aimed at the West, and this is visible.” He added that the conclusion of the war in Ukraine “will not bring peace to the European continent.”
The analysis suggests that the Russian leadership increasingly views itself as locked in a systemic confrontation with the West. In this context, German military experts believe Moscow may pursue its political objectives through military means well beyond its current campaign in Ukraine.