Taiwan has for the first time officially identified 2027 as a potential year for a Chinese invasion, highlighting growing concerns over tensions with Beijing.
The Taiwanese Defense Ministry revealed the date in a document released Tuesday, outlining upcoming war games simulating a full-scale attack by the Chinese military.
The annual Han Kuang Exercise, Taiwan’s most extensive live-fire military drills, will double in length this summer to ten days, reflecting the island’s increased focus on military readiness.
According to public documents reviewed by Bloomberg, no previous drills have explicitly specified a date for a potential invasion. Defense Minister Wellington Koo, however, downplayed the significance of the timeline.
“The Han Kuang Exercise always sets a timeline of one to two years in the future because the acquisition of new weapons and training require repeated drills for validation,” Koo told reporters Wednesday, as he prepared to brief lawmakers.
It remains unclear how this designation will alter Taiwan’s military exercises or if the decision is meant as a strategic signal to domestic and international audiences. Jack Chen, director of Formosa Defense Vision, suggested that setting 2027 as a target could pressure Taiwan’s divided legislature, where opposition parties have pushed back against increased military spending. “This could make the opposition parties and the public feel that increasing the military budget is an urgent necessity,” Chen said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has set 2027 as a key milestone for the People’s Liberation Army, seeking to transform it into a “modern military” by then and a “world-class force” by 2047. U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that China is preparing to be militarily capable of invading Taiwan by 2027, citing Beijing’s rapid expansion of its fighter aircraft, naval fleet, and missile arsenal since 2020.
Taiwanese officials have previously rejected such assessments, with Koo stating in 2023 that China would not be ready to execute an amphibious assault. Ongoing corruption purges within the upper ranks of the PLA have also raised doubts about the military’s operational effectiveness. The Pentagon’s annual report to Congress in December noted that Beijing’s internal investigations could hinder modernization efforts and weaken confidence in its leadership.
Since President Lai Ching-te took office last May, Beijing has escalated military pressure on Taiwan. China has conducted two large-scale exercises encircling the island and regularly sends warplanes across the Taiwan Strait’s median line. Earlier this week, China held additional drills just days after Lai referred to Beijing as a “hostile foreign force,” a designation never before used by a Taiwanese president.
President Donald Trump has urged Taiwan to increase its defense spending but has avoided explicitly stating whether the U.S. would intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion. The stance reflects Washington’s long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan’s defense.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials have hardened their rhetoric. Wang Huning, Beijing’s top official overseeing Taiwan policy, has pushed for what he described as the “inevitable reunification of the motherland.” The Communist Party’s official newspaper, People’s Daily, recently referred to Lai as a “cornered dog.”
As tensions continue to rise, Taiwan’s decision to name 2027 in its military planning underscores the growing urgency surrounding its defense strategy. With cross-strait relations at a low point, Taiwan appears to be bracing for what it sees as a critical juncture in its long-standing struggle for sovereignty.