In March, President Joe Biden approved a classified nuclear strategy that shifts the focus of U.S. deterrence to address the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal.
The move represents a significant departure from previous American nuclear policy, as the Pentagon anticipates that within the next decade, China’s nuclear capabilities could rival those of the United States and Russia in both size and diversity.
The New York Times reports that the new strategy, titled “Nuclear Weapons Employment Guidance,” was developed in response to growing concerns within the Pentagon about China’s nuclear ambitions. The strategy also aims to prepare the United States for potential coordinated nuclear threats from China, Russia, and North Korea.
Although the White House has not formally announced the adoption of this revised strategy, its existence has been hinted at in recent speeches by senior administration officials. These officials provided limited details, with more comprehensive information expected to be shared with Congress before Biden leaves office.
A nuclear strategist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has previously worked at the Pentagon, confirmed the update. “The President recently issued updated guidance on the use of nuclear weapons that takes into account the existence of multiple nuclear adversaries,” the strategist said. He further explained that the new guidance reflects the significant increase in the size and diversity of China’s nuclear arsenal.
In June, Pranay Vaddi, Senior Director for Arms Control and Nonproliferation at the National Security Council, referenced the document during a speech. He highlighted that, for the first time, the strategy considers the U.S. readiness to respond to nuclear crises that might erupt simultaneously or sequentially, using a combination of nuclear and non-nuclear weapons.
According to Vaddi, the strategy emphasizes the “need to deter Russia, China, and North Korea simultaneously,” reflecting the evolving global security environment.
The New York Times notes that in the past, the likelihood of American adversaries coordinating nuclear threats to surpass the U.S. nuclear arsenal was considered remote. However, the growing partnership between Russia and China, along with conventional weapons provided by North Korea and Iran to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, has fundamentally altered Washington’s strategic thinking.
The revised nuclear strategy is a response to these developments, underscoring the urgency with which the U.S. views the emerging nuclear capabilities of its adversaries. The classified nature of the document, with only a small number of printed copies distributed among national security officials and Pentagon commanders, reflects the sensitivity of the issue.