The Russian military is approaching a grim milestone of one million casualties in Ukraine as of summer 2025, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The report outlines that despite holding the battlefield initiative in recent months, Russian forces have made only limited territorial gains and suffered extensive personnel and equipment losses.
The CSIS assessment states that Russian troops have averaged daily advances as low as 50 meters in areas such as Kharkiv, a rate slower than many battles of the First World War. Even in Donetsk, where Russia captured the city of Avdiivka, advances averaged just 135 meters per day. Since January 2024, Russia has seized under one percent of Ukraine’s territory, an estimated 5,000 square kilometers.
The scale of material losses has been stark. Since January 2024 alone, Russia has lost over 1,800 tanks, more than 3,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and hundreds of artillery pieces. The report notes that equipment losses often occur at a rate of up to 5:1 in Ukraine’s favor.
More striking, however, is the human toll. CSIS estimates that by mid-2025, Russia will have sustained as many as 250,000 fatalities and over 950,000 total casualties. “Russia has paid an extraordinary blood price for seizing less than one percent of Ukrainian territory since January 2024,” the analysis concludes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russian troops hold the strategic initiative, saying, “We have reason to believe that we are set to finish them off.” Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the defense committee in the Russian Duma, echoed that sentiment, warning Ukraine that if it refused Russia’s terms in negotiations, it would hear “the language of the Russian bayonet.”
Despite those declarations, CSIS argues that Russia’s battlefield performance has been undermined by several factors, including reliance on dismounted infantry, a failure to integrate fire and maneuver, and Ukraine’s layered defenses. Ukrainian forces have used a mix of trenches, anti-tank barriers, and drones to repel repeated Russian assaults.
The report suggests that unless the U.S. and European partners continue military aid and apply further economic pressure, Russia could still outlast Ukraine in a long war. However, it also emphasizes that the Kremlin does not hold “all the cards.” The United States, the authors say, “just needs to start playing them.”